Questions
Frequently asked
What this is, where the numbers come from, and what we will not say.
Where does the data come from?
Public sources only: the US Energy Information Administration for prices, stocks, supply and the Mont Belvieu spot (the weekly price survey, the Weekly Petroleum Status Report and the daily spot series), and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for heating degree days. Every page names its source.
Why do the state price pages stop in March?
EIA's residential and wholesale price survey runs during heating season only, October through March. That is the survey's design, not a gap on our side. Off season each price page shows the full history, the last winter reading, and a note saying when the survey resumes. Stocks, supply and the Mont Belvieu spot run year-round.
How often is it updated?
The weekly EIA data lands Wednesdays; our pipeline pulls it and one brief goes out each week. The Mont Belvieu spot is daily. Each page shows a last-updated date so you know how fresh the reading is.
Do you forecast prices or tell me when to pre-buy?
No, and we never will. We report what the public record shows and how it compares to the prior five years. We do not predict prices, and we do not advise on pre-buys, fixed-price contracts, winter fill or hedging. Where we cite EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, it is labeled as EIA's forecast, with attribution, never as ours.
What does "above normal" mean?
Normal is the median value for the same calendar week over the prior five years. Above normal means today's value is over that median. The exact percent is shown on every page; nothing is left to a sense of the season.
Why do the stocks pages say propane and propylene?
EIA's weekly inventory series counts the two together because they share storage and pipelines. Propylene is mostly petrochemical feedstock. We follow EIA's series and say so, rather than pretending to a split the data does not offer.
Which states do you cover?
Every state in EIA's weekly heating-season survey, currently 38 states plus regional (PADD) and national rollups. States outside the survey, mostly the Pacific and parts of the South, have no weekly public price series to report.
Is this investment or purchasing advice?
No. The Fill Line is a reading of public data for people in and around the propane market. It is not investment, hedging or purchasing advice, and it never tells you when to lock a contract. Decisions are yours to make with your own counsel and the primary data.
Can I get the weekly brief by email?
Yes. The brief is free and goes out weekly. Subscribing is the best way to catch what moved without checking the board yourself.