Heating demand
Above normalUS heating degree days (propane-weighted)
Weekly heating degree days weighted by each region's propane-heating households, from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. The weather driver of propane heating demand.
Data through week of Oct 5, 2026 · source last checked Oct 7, 2026 · page revised Oct 7, 2026
Cite
- Weekly HDD
About this data
- Source
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center, weekly heating degree day summary
- Series
- Propane (LP gas) household-weighted heating degree days
- Basis
- Population-weighted by propane-heating household share
- Geography
- United States
- Unit
- HDD
- Calculation
- Weekly total
- Last observation
- week of Oct 5, 2026
- Update frequency
- Weekly
Season to date, propane-weighted heating degree days are running 43% below normal.
Weekly propane-weighted heating degree days fell to 20 from 26 the prior week. This week's reading sits 33.3% above the 5-year median. Season to date, propane-weighted heating degree days are running 43% below normal.
| Period | Current | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week over week | 20 | 26 | -23.1% |
| vs 4 weeks ago | 20 | 1 | +1,900.0% |
| Year over year | 20 | 14 | +42.9% |
| vs 5-yr median | 20 | 15 | +33.3% |
Previous weeks
Week of Sep 28, 2026
Propane-weighted heating degree days reached 26 for the week ending September 28, up 116.7% from the prior week. The reading sits 73.3% above the five-year median for the week.
Week of Sep 21, 2026
Propane-weighted heating degree days read 12 for the week through September 21, near zero as expected in the off-season; demand and readings build again with the fall.
Week of Sep 14, 2026
Weekly propane-weighted heating degree days sit at 5 for the week ending September 14. The off-season holds, and significant heating demand returns with the fall.
Week of Sep 7, 2026
Propane-weighted heating degree days read 1 for the week ended September 7, reflecting off-season conditions near zero. Demand and the readings build again with the fall.
How to read propane-weighted heating degree days
A heating degree day measures how cold a day was against a 65 degree Fahrenheit baseline. The day's temperature is the average of its high and low, and every degree that average falls below 65 counts as one degree day, so a day averaging 40 degrees counts 25 and a day at 65 or warmer counts zero. The weekly figure on this page adds up seven of those days. It climbs with the cold and sits near zero through the summer, when there is no heating load to measure, and the heating year it accumulates over runs from July 1 to June 30.
The series comes from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, which estimates daily temperatures for the 344 climate divisions of the lower 48 states from about 200 weather stations and then weights them up into state, regional and national figures. CPC's headline national number weights by population. The line on this page is CPC's propane version: the same procedure CPC documents for its gas, oil and electric heating series, with regions weighted by the number of households that heat with bottled, tank or LP gas. Cold weather where propane heating is common therefore counts for more than the same cold where few homes burn it. CPC's degree day explanation sets out the method.
Read each week against its normal rather than against the week before, because the seasonal climb alone makes almost every autumn week look colder than the last. For the week through Oct 5, 2026, the propane-weighted total was 20 HDD, 20 below the CPC normal of 40. Season to date, counting from July 1, it stands at 64 against a normal of 113. Early in the season the totals are small and percentages swing wildly; the season-to-date total against normal becomes the steadier read once weekly totals are large.
Heating degree days are the weather half of propane demand. A colder-than-normal stretch means more gallons burned in every propane-heated home and a faster draw on US propane stocks, and a mild one slows the draw. How that draw meets inventory and exports is the mechanism behind the seasonal price rise in why propane prices rise in winter. For a single house, the propane usage calculator scales a normal-winter estimate by how far the season-to-date reading here is running above or below normal.