North Dakota propane prices

North Dakota produces its own propane. Bakken associated gas runs through processing plants that strip out the natural gas liquids, which makes the state unusual in the Midwest: a supply source rather than only a destination. That has not made its winters easy. Propane heats a high share of North Dakota homes, the cold is severe and sustained, and the pipelines and rail loading that move Bakken barrels out compete for the same production.

The figure above is EIA's weekly survey average for North Dakota, collected from retail dealers during the October to March heating season and published Wednesday afternoons. No survey runs in the warm months, so the last spring reading stands until the fall. Two lines run on the chart because EIA surveys North Dakota dealers on both sides of the sale: what they pay at the rack and what they charge a residential customer. The lower line moves first, and the retail line follows it with a lag measured in weeks. The Census Bureau's American Community Survey, on five-year estimates, puts propane as the main heating fuel in 13.5% of occupied North Dakota homes, the 5th highest share in the country. A hard winter is a bigger household event here than the national average suggests.

For context beyond one state, North Dakota sits in the Midwest district: regional prices and Midwest propane stocks. Turning this price into a fill cost takes a tank size and a gauge reading; the propane usage calculator does that arithmetic and prefills the North Dakota price.