Wisconsin propane prices

Wisconsin combines a long heating season with a heavy fall grain drying load, and it was one of the states that ran short in the winter of 2013-14. Propane heats a high share of homes across the northern and western counties where the mains thin out. Supply comes by pipeline and rail from the Gulf Coast and the Midwest system, with in-state storage and terminals carrying the peak. When the upper Midwest tightens, Wisconsin dealers feel it at the same time Minnesota's do.

The figure above is EIA's weekly survey average for Wisconsin, collected from retail dealers during the October to March heating season and published Wednesday afternoons. No survey runs in the warm months, so the last spring reading stands until the fall. EIA also surveys a wholesale price for Wisconsin, plotted as the lower line. The distance between the two is the delivered-service stack, and it widens when the rack falls faster than dealers reprice. The Census Bureau's American Community Survey, on five-year estimates, puts propane as the main heating fuel in 11.8% of occupied Wisconsin homes, well above the national middle. That is a large block of homes to keep supplied through a cold January.

The regional numbers around this price are Midwest propane prices and Midwest propane stocks, the inventory that has to cover the winter. Turning this price into a fill cost takes a tank size and a gauge reading; the propane usage calculator does that arithmetic and prefills the Wisconsin price.